War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".