Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
