Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
