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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.